Buying a used car in Jamaica: what five years of asking prices tell you

Key findings

• The same car (same make, model and age) asked 25% more in late 2022 than in 2019, and 39% more by mid-2023.
• The value sweet spot is 5 to 9 years old: asking prices ease down about 5% a year from 5 to 10, then fall about 15% a year from 10 to 13.
• Mileage barely moves asking prices: for the same model and year, every mileage band is within 2.2% of the median, so a low-mileage car rarely costs more.
• Manuals look 40% cheaper but are not: for the same model and year they asked 2.9% above the median. Other parishes look cheaper only because they list older cars.
• Some models stood still while the market rose: Nissan Tiida −9%, Nissan Bluebird +3%, Suzuki Vitara +4% from 2019 to 2022, against about 24% for the market.

A fair asking range for the most-listed models

Pick a model to see what sellers asked for it at each age, over the most recent 18 months in the data (January 2022 to June 2023). The bar is the middle half of asking prices; the mark is the median.

For example, half of all 7- to 10-year-old Honda Fits were listed between J$1.19M and J$1.85M. A Fit of that age asking well above J$1.85M is in the dearest quarter of the market and should have something to show for it; one well below J$1.19M deserves a careful inspection.

These are asking prices. Sellers negotiate, so what changes hands is usually lower.

How price falls with age

Asking prices fall fastest in two places. Between 3 and 5 years old the median drops from J$3.06M to J$1.85M. Between 10 and 13 years it drops from J$1.45M to J$900k, about 15% a year.

In between, from 5 to 10 years old, it eases down only about 5% a year (J$1.85M to J$1.45M). That is the value sweet spot: a 5- to 9-year-old car has already taken the big early drop, and it loses value slowly while you own it, as long as you sell before the slide that starts around 10 years.

After about 15 years the fall is small in dollars (J$770k at 15, J$550k at 20), but these cars vary widely in condition.

This curve pools every make and model listed from 2019 to mid-2023, so it shows the general shape, not any one model. Age is the listing year minus the vehicle year.

How much prices rose, 2019 to 2023

The same car cost more to buy each year. Compared like for like (the same make, model and age), asking prices were flat through 2020, about 7% higher than 2019 by late 2021, 25% higher by the second half of 2022, and 39% higher by the first half of 2023.

The plain median asking price moved from J$1.29M in 2019 to J$1.6M in 2022 and J$2M in the first half of 2023. That figure also moves when the mix of cars changes, which is why the like-for-like index is the better guide.

These are nominal Jamaican dollars. We have not adjusted for inflation, so part of the rise may reflect prices in general going up rather than cars alone.

Which models got dearer, and which held still

From 2019 to 2022, the market as a whole rose about 24% like for like. Some models barely moved: Nissan Tiida −9%, Nissan Bluebird +3%, Suzuki Vitara +4%, Nissan Wingroad +5%. Others outran the market: Suzuki Swift +36%, Toyota Voxy +30%, Nissan Sunny +29%, Honda Stepwgn +28%.

A model that lagged the market is relatively cheaper now than it was. A model that outran it is in demand, which also tends to make it easier to sell on later.

Each model is compared with itself at the same age (2019 against 2022, within age bands), so a shift toward newer or older examples does not count as a price change. Only models with 200+ priced listings behind the comparison are shown.

What mileage does (and does not) do to price

On the surface, mileage looks huge: cars listed with 20,000 to 50,000 km had a median asking price of J$2.15M, against J$720k for 180,000 km and up. But low-mileage cars are mostly newer cars.

Compare the same make, model and vehicle year, listed in the same year, and mileage barely moves the asking price: every band sits within −2% to +1% of its model-and-year median. In other words, sellers price by model and year, not by the odometer.

For you, that means a low-mileage example usually costs no more than a high-mileage one of the same year. It is worth hunting for, and a high reading is a fair point to negotiate on.

Only 8% to 19% of listings state the mileage, so treat this as indicative.

Manual gearboxes and other parishes are not the bargains they look

Manual cars look 40% cheaper (median J$890k against J$1.49M for automatics), but they are mostly older cars and different models. For the same make, model and year, manuals asked 2.9% above the median (2,500 listings compared): no discount at all. Manuals are also scarce, 5.7% of listings in 2019 and 2.7% in 2023.

Parish medians differ a lot: St. Thomas J$800k against J$1.58M in Kingston/St. Andrew. The difference is the cars, not the place: the median listed car was 14 years old in St. Thomas and 7 in Kingston/St. Andrew. For the same make, model and year, every parish is within −3.3% to +1.4% of the median. Travelling to another parish will find you older cars, not the same car for less.

Is there a cheaper month to buy?

No month is meaningfully cheaper. Compared with the same make, model and year, every calendar month sits within −0.9% to +0.4% of the median. October to December run very slightly lower, by under 1%, which is too small to plan a purchase around.

Buy when the right car turns up rather than waiting for a season.

About this data

• These are ASKING prices from 201,570 unique car listings on Jamaican classified sites, collected January 2019 to June 2023 (161,557 with a usable price). They are not sale prices: sellers negotiate, and no sale outcomes or time-to-sell were recorded.
• Prices are nominal Jamaican dollars, with no adjustment for inflation.
• 2023 covers January to June only. In 2021 fewer than half of listings carried a usable vehicle year or body type, so age and body-type figures for 2021 rest on a partial subset.
• Mileage appears on only 8% to 19% of listings, and about one listing in five has no usable price; price figures describe priced listings only.
• Repeat sightings of the same car at the same price count once. Monthly listing counts are a rough guide: some low months were collection outages.
• Groups with fewer than 10 priced listings are left out. No seller details are published.